India’s fertility rate falls below replacement level, now population of 1.46 billion: UN Report
The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report has pointed to a major demographic change. According to the report, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) has now come down to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This means that now the average Indian woman is not giving birth to as many children as is needed to maintain the population of one generation – without migration.
Despite this, India will remain the most populous country in the world by 2025, where the estimated population will be around 1.46 billion i.e. 146 crores.
What is the Real Fertility Crisis?
This time the title of the UNFPA report is “The Real Fertility Crisis”. The report wants to say that there is no need to panic about the falling numbers of fertility. Rather, the real problem is that people all over the world, and especially in India, are not able to fulfill their reproductive goals.
The report says, “This crisis is not about underpopulation or overpopulation. It is about the freedom of people who are unable to decide on their own when and how many children to have.” UNFPA says the solution is to promote “reproductive agencies” – where people can make informed and free decisions about sex, contraception, and family planning.
Meaning of Demographic Transition
The report also highlights some other important shifts:
Fertility Rate: India’s fertility rate has fallen to 1.9, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
Youth Population: India still has a lot of young population. 0-14 age group comprises 24% of the population, while 10-19 age group comprises 17% and 10-24 age group comprises 26%.
Working Age Population: People between 15 and 64 years of age — called working age — make up 68% of India’s total population. If the right employment policies and education initiatives are implemented, this can be a demographic dividend.
Elderly Population: People above 65 years of age currently make up 7% of the population, but this number is expected to increase in the next few decades as life expectancy is also improving.
Improvement in Life Expectancy
The report also stated that the average life expectancy in India by 2025 is:
For men: 71 years
For women: 74 years
These numbers show that people are living longer, but there is another responsibility attached to it – to strengthen elderly care and pension systems.
Questions for policy makers
The fertility rate going down does not only mean that the population growth will stop. It also means that we will now have to be ready for new challenges. If the number of people of working age starts decreasing, it will also affect the economy.
In such a situation, the government has the opportunity to:
Make reproductive health services accessible and affordable.
Promote gender equality and education for girls.
Take new initiatives for youth employment.
Develop elderly care infrastructure on time.
Way forward
The UNFPA report is both a wake-up call and an opportunity for India. While falling fertility rate may be a concern on one hand, it also shows that people’s priorities are changing – education, career, and economic security are getting more importance.
If the right policies are implemented, India can reap the full benefits of its demographic dividend and move towards a balanced, inclusive and sustainable future.
Finally, the report highlights that there is no need to panic, but to understand what people want and how they can be supported. As long as every individual is not free to take decisions about his or her future, the real crisis will remain the same – lack of choice.